Analytically, there is
insufficient information to conclude what the latest round of oligarchic
squabbles in Ukraine leads to. Nevertheless, new facts, taken together, shed
light on the emerging political disposition in this
country. Potentially, the centrifugal force that initiated in Kiev last
February has acquired sufficient strength to break the state forever. But
let me mention the context before proceeding with the facts.
As I have mentioned before (see Creeping decentralization of Ukraine), Dnipropetrovsk
governor Ihor Kolomoyskyi is a maverick oligarch who has broken the rules of
the game played by the Ancien Régime in Kyiv. Apparently, his
refusal to follow the rules - which can be a witty move as this chess game
develops - has worried President Poroshenko (and supporting him oligarchs, most
of all Dmitro Firtash and Rinat Akhmetov) so much that the latter may feel now
that Mr. Kolomoyskyi is a greater threat to his group than the Donbass
separatists. A few facts point in this direction.
July 8: the TV channel
"Inter" broadcast a film that blamed Mr. Kolomoyskyi for,
among his other sins, the creation of "private battalions."
The channel belongs to Mr. Firtash who is currently on bail in Vienna waiting
for his extradition, on the U.S. request, hearing to be completed. Other media
attacks have been reported as well.
July 7: Mr. Kolomoyskyi proposed
that the Ukrainian government "today is simply obliged to confiscate
property ... of supporters of separatism (e.g.) ... UkrTeleCom ... (to form) a
special company, in which shareholders are members of anti-terrorist operation,
veterans, relatives of the victims. Why do some have to die for their country
while the rich get richer?" UkrTeleCom is the owner of Ukrainian national
telephone network and it belongs to Mr. Akhmetov.
July 6: Mr. Kolomoyskyi may visit
Vienna (at least, some of his close affiliates were reported to be there),
apparently, to meet Mr. Firtash. The reasons for such a meeting could be
numerous: Mr. Kolomoyskyi purchased recently arrears from a bankrupt
Ukrainian bank and came to discuss the terms of payment - in shares, if
necessary - that Mr. Firtash owed. Apparently, with little success.
It should be added that the
battalions funded by Mr. Kolomoyskyi were the prime force capturing Mariupol
last month. This city is at the center of Mr. Akhmetov's business empire.
The attack took place despite Mr. Akhmetov's plea to prevent military activity
in the region.
Mr. Kolomoyskyi has pioneered the
use of paramilitary formation to attain business means in Ukraine. Appealing to
the confiscation of large property in favor of "veterans", he has
made another step towards dismantling the "old" Ukraine.
P.S. July 11:
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is reported to have rejected Mr. Kolomoisky's
request to provide arms (e.g. automatic grenade launchers and machine
guns) to his battalions. Minister Geletey recommends Mr.
Kolomoisky to negotiate this issue personally with
President Poroshenko (see Geletey refuses to transfer weapons to the
volunteer battalions, in Russian)
P.S.S. July 11: A blogger reports that some Sergey Krasnovsky has come to the separatists. According to the report, he has claimed representing "a large businessman" who expects the political structure of Ukraine to be radically changed in 2-3 weeks. Mr. Krasnovsky has sought opinion on what structure the Donbass leaders would agree upon (see Benya prepares a coup d'état, in Russian)
The report refers, apparently, to Mr. Kolomoisky. Knowing that Mr. Kolomoisky is a seasoned corporate raider, I have mulled a wild idea that he might plan to split the region he controls (Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, and Kharkiv) from the rest of Ukraine in the hope of signing a separate deal with Russian President Putin. The latest news is consistent with other information. First, rumors are that Mr. Kolomoisky's affiliates planned to meet with people linked to Mr. Putin in Kharkiv a few days ago but failed due to the change of leadership in Donetsk. Second, the interview given by Gennady Korban, the right-hand man of Mr. Kolomoisky, contains a paragraph of what the Kolomoisky's group considers to be the Putin's plan in Ukraine (see I do war and finance, in Russian.) Thus, the idea of Mr. Kolomoisky being a separatist may not be crazy after all.
P.S.S. July 11: A blogger reports that some Sergey Krasnovsky has come to the separatists. According to the report, he has claimed representing "a large businessman" who expects the political structure of Ukraine to be radically changed in 2-3 weeks. Mr. Krasnovsky has sought opinion on what structure the Donbass leaders would agree upon (see Benya prepares a coup d'état, in Russian)
The report refers, apparently, to Mr. Kolomoisky. Knowing that Mr. Kolomoisky is a seasoned corporate raider, I have mulled a wild idea that he might plan to split the region he controls (Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, and Kharkiv) from the rest of Ukraine in the hope of signing a separate deal with Russian President Putin. The latest news is consistent with other information. First, rumors are that Mr. Kolomoisky's affiliates planned to meet with people linked to Mr. Putin in Kharkiv a few days ago but failed due to the change of leadership in Donetsk. Second, the interview given by Gennady Korban, the right-hand man of Mr. Kolomoisky, contains a paragraph of what the Kolomoisky's group considers to be the Putin's plan in Ukraine (see I do war and finance, in Russian.) Thus, the idea of Mr. Kolomoisky being a separatist may not be crazy after all.
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